Last week was sobering for K12 edtech startups and companies. EdWeek reported that over 50% of school districts have frozen their spending outside of critical priorities.
At the same time, many edtech companies are experiencing a surge in usage. During ASU-GSV’s virtual conference, Mercedes Bent from Lightspeed Venture Partners shared that some edtech companies are experiencing 3-4 times higher usage after temporarily lowering their paywalls.
But in edtech, user needs do not necessarily translate into customer purchases. Here are five highlights from industry experts and my recent conversations with school administrators.
#1 - Budgets are freezing this year and declining for the next two years
In terms of current spending, districts are somewhat paralyzed by the unfortunate timing of Covid-19 and their new needs that have emerged from school closures. According to Michele Molnar of EdWeek, schools typically have the most discretion and motivation to use expiring funds in the lead up to summer. But social distancing interrupted state legislators from finalizing their school budgets for next year. The resulting uncertainty is forcing school districts to be conservative toward the purchase of “nice to have” products.
More concerning are the budget shortfalls that are expected to affect next school year. Last Thursday, Kevin Custer of Arc Capital suggested that K-12 edtech companies should plan for a 20% or greater impact to sales volume and retention.
Superintendents are planning for two scenarios. The best case is the flat budget that was left on the table in many state legislatures. The worst case is a downturn in state revenues and the contraction of school budgets. Similar to businesses, a school’s desire to preserve jobs will force a rationalization of its subscription products and other expenses.
#2 - Discretionary budgets are most in flux
Most of the edtech companies that I support make supplemental technology products that usually cost schools $5,000 or less per year. A benefit to operating in this price range is that schools can fund those purchases using a diverse source of funds: district money, principal budgets, and innovation grants.
The challenge for these companies is that discretionary money will be significantly impacted by the uncertainty surrounding school closures this year and next. One principal shared that while his school has leftover money from canceled end-of-year events, that money has already been repurposed for school sanitization and bolstering Chromebook stockpiles.
A source of funding that’s sure to be impacted by school closures is innovation grants. Many teachers apply for grants to fund the purchase of new classroom technologies. These grants are offered by the state, private corporations, educational foundations, and school districts themselves. All of these sponsoring organizations are expected to have smaller operating budgets in the school year 2020-21.
#3 - State funding for districts will be impacted hardest
School budgets are dependent on tax revenues but to different extents based on their state and locality. In some school districts, the lion’s share of district funding is derived from local taxes. For example, over 80% of Austin ISD’s budget is derived from local property taxes, some of which are recycled through the state first. The housing market isn’t expected to fall as sharply as it fell in 2008, but school districts will be impacted by homeowners defaulting on hefty tax payments.
In other states, school districts rely heavily on state funding. In Hawaii, 89% of school funding comes from state revenues. States mostly fund education through sales tax so states that rely heavily on tourism -- such as Hawaii, Florida, Colorado, and Nevada -- are most at-risk. According to Axios, Nevada relies more on income tax than any other state in the US. Governer Sisolak recently advised all state agencies to prepare for budget cuts up to 4% next year and 6-14% the following year.
#4 - High poverty districts will be hit hardest
Since an economic contraction will affect state funding the hardest, lower socioeconomic areas of the country are bracing for the biggest impact. This includes states that depend heavily on state funds -- much of the Southeast US -- and rural areas in other states.
For example, New York is already rescinding funding for at-risk schools through its recent $100 million cut from the Fair Student Funding formula. Introduced in 2007, this legislation added additional funding per student based on need and also gave principals the discretion to purchase new technologies.
The biggest variable for at-risk districts is the extent of current and future relief. The federal government has already promised about $13B to support public schools through the Education Stabilization Fund. The major of this money is targeted for Title 1 schools and governors are already claiming this is not nearly enough.